The Miramar Company is to purchase one of three typ es of real estate: apartment building, office building, and warehouse....
The Miramar Company is to purchase one of three typ es of real estate: apartment building, office building, and warehouse. The futur e market condition is the key in making the decision. The company estimates that the probabilities of favorable, stable, and unfavorable market condition are 0.60, 0.30, an d 0.10 respectively. Because the decision is critical, the company is considering co ntracting with a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market condition s. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditi ons. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive report, given stable conditions; and a 0.10 probability of a posi tive report, given unfavorable conditions. There is a 0.90 probability of a negati ve report, given unfavorable conditions; a 0.70 probability, given stable conditions; and a 0.40 probability, given favorable conditions. Use the Bayes Theorem to determine the probabilities of favorable, stable, and unfavorable market condition if the survey repo rt shows positive; the probabilities of favorable, stable, and unfavorable market condition if the survey report shows negative
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